Showing posts with label Tom ONeil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom ONeil. Show all posts

Call it Oscars Armageddon - our final, fiercest battle of derby season. HuffPo editors Michael Hogan and Chris Rosen and I have clashed over predictions often during the previous months, but no one is vanquished - yet.


In the video below, as hard as I blast away at poor Chris to give up his fight for Michael Hanake (Amour) in the directors' category, he won't cave. Meantime, Mike valiantly carries his flag for David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and, in the supporting actors' slot, I refuse to agree with their joint view that the winner will be Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook). Nope, I say it will be Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) and that's that.


Watch our slugfest below and decide for yourself who is correct. Here you can view all of our predictions, compared to the forecasts of 23 other top Oscarologists. Here is our collective view when the predictions are combined and translated into rankings and odds.




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Years ago Variety editor Peter Bart shared with me a fascinating Oscar insight. In order to win Best Picture, he said, a movie must conjure up a person who academy members are rooting for. In other words, the film with the best face behind the title wins. Thus The Departed (2006) and The Hurt Locker (2009) won because voters wanted to give hugs to Marty Scorsese and Kathryn Bigelow. This year, according to that theory, Argo may be surging ahead because Hollywood is cheering on poor Oscar-snubbed Ben Affleck, who, after years in the industry's trenches, has finally emerged as a major filmmaker.


But what about Lincoln? Who comes immediately to mind when voters think about the movie that leads this derby with the most nominations? Maybe Daniel Day-Lewis? Maybe Steven Spielberg? The correct answer should really be Spielberg - it's his story and it's not properly reverberating across Oscarland. Think about what the dramatic success of Lincoln means: It represents the spectacular career comeback of a man who reigns as king of Hollywood filmmakers.


2013-02-02-Spielberg2.jpg



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