Showing posts with label Iacono Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iacono Research. Show all posts

Via this story at Germany’s Spiegel Online comes the informative graphic below that breaks down the bank deposits in a number of interesting ways – by size and by country of origin.



Aside from the increase from 5.8 billion euros to 7 billion euros for “Cyprus must come up with” in the middle pie-chart, the other surprise here (at least to me) is that only 21 billion euros of the 37 billion euros held in accounts over 100,000 euros comes from outside the euro zone (primarily from Russia). My guess is that nearly all the Russian money is at the one bank that ‘s being targeted by Cyprus’ German overlords.






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/27/the-cyprus-bailout-in-pie-charts/

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 0.8 percent, from an upwardly revised annual rate of 4.94 million units in January to 4.98 million in February, as both home prices and the number of homes for sale rose. Only the rise in inventory was a surprise.


The supply of unsold homes – a key factor behind the recent rise in home prices – surged 9.6 percent, from 1.74 million units to 1.94 million, as the months of supply metric jumped from 4.3 months to 4.7 months in February, the highest level in three months.


Existing Home Sales


The median home price was unchanged at $173,600, representing an increase of 11.6 percent from a year ago, and sales of distressed homes accounted for 25 percent of last month’s home purchases (15 percent foreclosures and 10 percent short sales), down sharply from a 34 percent share last year at this time. All cash sales rose from a 28 percent share in January to 32 percent last month and investors were responsible for 22 percent of all sales, up from 19 percent the month before.


Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was optimistic, noting “Job growth in the improving economy and pent-up demand are causing both home sales and rental leasing to rise. Though home prices are rising much faster than rents, historically low mortgage rates are still making home purchases affordable. The only headwinds are limited housing inventory, which varies greatly around the country, and credit conditions that remain too restrictive.”






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/21/existing-home-sales-prices-inventory-all-rise/

It wasn’t much, and it came after a rather large outflow on Monday, but, for the first time since February 6th, gold was added to the trust for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) on Tuesday.


GLD Gold


Per the data from the SPDR website, GLD holdings rose by 2.7 tonnes following an outflow of 13.3 tonnes on Monday, signaling a possible change in sentiment amongst U.S. investors.


As noted here previously in Are Record Outflows From The SPDR Gold ETF Cause For Concern?, that’s all GLD flows really represent – U.S. investor sentiment toward gold.


In recent years, there has been virtually no correlation between the metal’s price and the amount of gold bullion moving into and out of gold ETFs. In fact, it’s reasonable to conclude from the chart above that recent GLD outflows were the result of the metal being held by relatively weak hands who only sold after the price dropped.


It wasn’t until the gold price fell from about $1,700 an ounce to nearly $1,600 an ounce last month that large amounts of the metal began exiting the trust.


[To continue reading this article, please visit Seeking Alpha.]






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/20/for-the-first-time-in-6-weeks-the-gld-etf-adds-gold/

It’s not clear what this article by Bill Frezza is doing at the Huffington Post, next to a right sidebar that beckons readers to see what porn stars look like without their makeup and to learn how Halle Berry’s cleavage was a distraction to Jay Leno, but it’s hard to disagree with this assessment of where things are headed.


Not surprisingly, Bill’s background is as an engineer, not an economist or lawyer, and, as such, he sees our collective future a bit differently than policy makers as detailed in the excerpts below:



HuffPost1) The global currency system is headed for collapse.


This will be unlike any currency collapse we have ever seen. It will not be geographically containable, and will leave no safe havens. For the first time in history, central banks around the world are debauching their currencies in unison.



2) The perceived elimination of counterparty risk is financial crack cocaine.


The subprime mortgage meltdown gave us fair warning of what happens when investors believe they will be protected by government intervention when parties with whom they do business fail … This has profound consequences on trading behavior, as it distorts the incentives that should inform institutional risk management.



3) There is no safe exit from ZIRP.


Future historians will puzzle in amazement about how otherwise sophisticated people allowed the entire global monetary system to come crashing down because some Princeton professor got his hands on a printing press. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s unshakable commitment to a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) has impoverished savers, driven investors dangerously out along the risk curve, and baked a ticking time bomb into the federal budget cake.



4) We only await our Archduke Ferdinand moment.


No one knows what will trigger the panic that wipes away the unfounded confidence upon which our entire fractional reserve banking system is perched … There are so many potential triggers to choose from. We will know that the moment is near when the smart money starts heading for the sidelines, to be followed by everyone else.



In the words of former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince in mid-2007, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing” and that about sums up where






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/14/awaiting-our-archduke-ferdinand-moment/

The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers increased their payrolls by 236,000 in February, well above the consensus estimate for an increase of just 160,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 percent to 7.7 percent, the lowest level since December 2008.


This is, however, another case where the details are important and the details are mostly negative.



The rise in payrolls follows overall downward revisions to prior months’ data as payroll growth in December was revised up from 196,000 to 219,000, but the January total moved in the other direction, down sharply from 157,000 to 119,000 for a total downward revision of 15,000.


Seasonal factors are no doubt involved here, but the big downward revision in January could be important as it comes following a long period of mostly upward revisions to the data.


As for the lower jobless rate, like many other times in recent years, the decline was due largely to people leaving the labor force and no longer being counted as “unemployed”. While the number of employed people rose by 170,000, the number of people not in the labor force surged by 296,000 and most of these people still want a job, but they’ve given up looking.


The broader U-6 measure of under-employment (including persons marginally attached to the labor force and those settling for part-time work instead of full-time work) fell from 14.4 percent to 14.3 percent.


Returning to the payrolls survey, professional and business services saw broad-based gains while adding 73,000 positions and an improving housing market again contributed to job growth as the construction sector added 48,000 jobs in February after a gain of 25,000 in January, mostly in specialty trade.



Retail trade accounted for 23,700 of the 30,000 new positions in trade, transportation, and utilities while food services and drinking establishments were responsible for more than three-quarters of the 24,000 payrolls increase for leisure and hospitality businesses.


The health care industry added its usual number of new jobs while state governments were responsible for nearly all of the 10,000 decline in government payrolls.


Overall, this is certainly a good jobs report, but it’s much less than meets the eye.






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/08/february-payrolls-surge-236k-jobless-rate-falls-to-7-7/

MUST READS

Stocks: Another day, another record? – CNN/Money

European stocks hit highest since 2008 crash – Reuters

As Fears Recede, Dow Industrials Hit a Milestone – NY Times

What the Pros Are Saying About the Market’s Rally – CNBC

Proof the Fed is Juicing the Markets – Fox Business News

It’s time to tax financial transactions – Washington Post

Forget Cuts, the Economy Needs a $2 Trillion Stimulus – Fiscal Times

Why Sequester May Be Exactly the Right Policy for the Economy – CNBC

Seeking a deal, Obama reaches out to GOP rank and file – Washington Post

Bersani Says Recession Emergency as He Bids for Premiership – Bloomberg

Chavez the Popular Autocrat Leaves a Legacy of Ruin – Bloomberg

Argentina’s downward spiral – Sober Look


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< MARKETS/INVESTING

Little reaction in oil market to Chavez death – AP

Gold holds firm as stock markets rally – Reuters

How Much of Equity Prices Is Real? – Alhambra Partners

Your sequestered brain can’t see next crash coming – MarketWatch

Stocks & Inflation: The End Of An (Abnormal) Affair? – Capital Spectator

Dollar Threatening Serious Reversal as Dow Index Hits Record High – Daily FX

That Dow record is nice, but $3,000 gold is nicer: Rosenberg – MarketWatch

Mexico may repatriate some Gold from Bank of England – GoldSilverWorlds

“Tug of War” as Asians Buy Gold But ETF Investors Sell – Bullionvault

The secret bull market in gold – MarketWatch



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Why Don’t We Have Deflation? – Krugman, NY Times

Did the US fall into recession during 2012? – Fabius Maximus

Growth stumble, jobs funk beg for new policy tilt – Reuters

Emerging markets’ growth slowing, HSBC PMI report says – BBC

Merkel Looks East for Austerity Allies in Hollande Talks – Bloomberg

Australia Expands at Fastest Pace Since 2007 on Exports – Bloomberg

Royal Bank of Scotland should be broken up, says Mervyn King – Telegraph

More bark than bite as Beijing takes aim at housing speculation – Reuters

Norway Cracks Down on Mortgage Debt to Fight Bubble Risk – Bloomberg

Distressed Home Sales Bolster Recovering Housing Market – Reuters

Lacker says timing of Fed exit is going to be tricky – Reuters

Central Banks: Independence Lost – voxeu






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/06/wednesday-morning-links-125/

MUST READS

NPC: China keeps growth target at 7.5% – BBC

Sequester Leaves U.S. in ‘Fantasy World’ – CNBC

Budget crisis eases, GOP seeks to avoid shutdown – Reuters

Larger Spending Cuts Would Help the Economy – Boskin, WSJ

S&P Credibility Seen Eroded by Complicity in Soured Deals – Bloomberg

Securitization Lobby in Disarray After Most Directors Quit – Bloomberg

Too-Big-to-Fail Crowd Turns on One of Their Own – Bloomberg

Volcker Says Weakening the Fed’s Stimulus ‘Liquor’ a Challenge – Bloomberg

The Greenspan Fed’s Biggest Mistake: The LTCM Rate Cuts – Macroeconomic Reliance

Dow Jones high on Fed steroids: Our view – USA Today

There Is No Asset Bubble? – Advisor Perspectives

Central Banking Hubris – Sentence, Bullionvault


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil above $90 as US spending cuts cause jitters – AP

Gold snaps 4-day fall on prospects of further easing – Reuters

Why gasoline prices rise when oil prices fall – MarketWatch

Pound’s World-Worst Drop Seen Growing in Pimco Math – Bloomberg

DoubleLine’s Gundlach shifts gears, now buys U.S. bonds – Reuters

Morgan Stanley: Gold Bull Market Ins’t Over, It’s ‘Evolving’ – BI

BofA Merrill Lynch now sees Gold at $1680 in 2013, $1838 in 2014 – BullionStreet

U.S. Mint Raises Premiums on Precious Metal Coins as Prices Decline – Coinweek

Gold Investor Index Slips to 5-Month Low – Bullionvault

Gold Is Over – Just Like in 1976 – Casey Research



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Warren Buffett’s Economic Confusion – Reason

Reasons to be optimistic about the economy – Washington Post

Wen Warns on China Tensions in Final Speech as Premier – Bloomberg

Europe’s economic fractures widen in February – Reuters

Divided euro zone economy declines further in February – Reuters

EU Said To Weigh Extra Years For Irish Rescue Loans – Bloomberg

Medicine Wears Off: Is the Euro Crisis About to Return? – Spiegel

Brazil Said to Plan Fuel Tax Cut to Rein in Consumer Prices – Bloomberg

China’s Push to Cool Down Housing Raises Questions – Dealbook

Why China’s Property Market Is Getting So Scary – CNBC

Yellen: Fed’s QE Should Continue, Risk Limited – Bloomberg

In Bernanke We Trust – Alhambra Partners






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/05/tuesday-morning-links-128/

[This article, originally published on March 21st, 2012, has seen steady inbound traffic since that time and, as such, it seemed like a good idea to run it again after similar charts appeared at Bloomberg and elsewhere last week when Fed Chief Ben Bernanke commented on how great a record he has on inflation.]


In a lecture yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the mistake of talking about inflation during his critique of the gold standard, going so far as to say that when the barbarous relic was used as the foundation of our monetary system “over the medium run, it sometimes caused periods of inflation and deflation” (see this item from earlier in the day for links and other specifics).


That struck me as a particularly odd way of addressing a subject that probably shouldn’t have been addressed at all and that prompted the creation of the chart shown below using data from … the Federal Reserve.


Maybe it’s just me (after all, my background is as an engineer, not as an economist), but, the hard money days prior to the formation of the Federal Reserve sure seem to be a better alternative to what we’ve had over the last hundred years, inflation-wise, especially when looking at the slope of that red curve since the last vestiges of sound money were abandoned back in 1971.


Inflation in the U.S. from 1800


When you think about it, any sensible central bank chief serving decades after the launch of another experiment with pure fiat money really shouldn’t be talking about the gold standard at all. History shows that these pure paper money systems usually run their course after a few decades (sometime much sooner) and, depending upon how many terms Bernanke serves as Fed Chairman, that could occur on his watch.


I mean, what’s the possible upside in calling attention to the gold standard in general and, in particular, to the inflation data under that system as compared to what we’ve got now?


Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan was careful to only make substantive comments about the yellow metal before (Gold and Economic Freedom) and after (Stunner: Gold Standard Fully Supported By… Alan Greenspan!?) he ran the world’s most powerful central bank and Bernanke would do well to follow that lead.


But, if our current Fed Chief feels as though he must talk about how returning to a gold standard would be problematic today (probably as a result of increasing calls from the public as they see rising prices everywhere but in the government’s statistics), he should probably just leave out the part about inflation.






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/04/inflation-before-and-after-the-federal-reserve-2/

MUST READS

3 scenarios for sequester – Politico

If Not a US Downgrade Now, When? – CNBC

Obama renews offer to cut social safety nets – Reuters

Euro Leaders Demand Austerity as Italy Nears New Vote – Bloomberg

BIS paper urges new look at output gap calculation – CentralBanking.com

Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ’08 As Seniors Bankrupt Kids – Bloomberg

Bloomberg: ‘U.S. Can Borrow INFINITE Amount Of Money’ – Daily Bail

The Coming Higher Education Bust: “Some Will Survive” – Dollar Collapse

So You Want To Short The Student Loan Bubble? – Zero Hedge

Reaching Our Debt Limits – Our Finite World

The Reverse-Joads of California – WSJ

Italy and “Ro, Ro” – Noland, Prudent Bear


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil falls as US government cuts spending – AP

Gold firms as appetite for European stocks wanes – Reuters

Dow Likely to Bust Through Record—Then What? – CNBC

Asset Allocation: More Stocks, Fewer Bonds – Barron’s

Investing Again After the ‘Shock and Awe’ of Losses – CNBC

Has the bull market in stocks become ‘too big to fail’? – LA Times

An Investor’s Guide to X-treme Monetary and Fiscal Conditions – Hussman Funds

Ted Butler: Highest Concentrated Position In Silver In History – GoldSilverWorlds

Debunking Credit Suisse & Goldman Sachs’s Bear Thesis On Gold – Seeking Alpha

Traders split on gold outlook – Financial Post



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Of Krugman & Minsky – Azizonomics

The Business of the Minimum Wage – NY Times

Recovery in U.S. Is Lifting Profits, but Not Adding Jobs – NY Times

BOJ nominee Kuroda vows aggressive policy action – Globe & Mail

China well-prepared for currency war: official – WantChinaTimes

Chinese Stocks Fall on Steps to Curb Property Prices – NY Times

China property curbs may trigger short-term home buying rush – Bloomberg

The Housing Bubble and the Limits of Human Knowledge – The American

Will Reform of Fannie and Freddie Kill the 30-Year Mortgage? – Time

Bernanke on long-term interest rates – Econbrowser

Dissension is Overrated – Part II – aucontrarian

Promises, Promises at the New York Fed – NY Times






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/04/monday-morning-links-117/

The latest issue of the Iacono Research Weekend Update has been posted to the website and is now available for subscribers here . There are no changes to the model portfolio or the buy ratings this week, however, there is new commentary on the bearish arguments against gold and some thoughts on the next round of covered call sales in the following discussion topics:



The executive summary is as follows:



Amid mostly positive economic reports in the U.S., equity markets threatened all-time highs but came up short of new records as investors remain unfazed by the sequester spending cuts that went into effect on Friday. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke promised to keep monetary policy easy in the U.S. while, in Europe, turmoil following inconclusive elections in Italy may result in a new phase of the sovereign debt crisis there and, as a result, the trade-weighted dollar surged.


A stronger dollar pressured commodity prices and related shares as the natural resource sector looks to rebound in March after closing out a dismal month of February with a fourth straight week of losses. REITs saw only modest declines, however, lower prices for gold, silver, and mining stocks pushed these positions further into negative territory for the year as the model portfolio fell 0.6 percent, now down 6.7 percent so far in 2013.



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MUST READS

Congress turns to next crisis: Shutdown – Politico

Sequester begins, with no end in sight for cuts – The Hill

Biggest Winners and Losers in the Sequester Stalemate – Fiscal Times

IMF to lower US growth expectations on sequestration – The Hill

Spending cuts: When they’ll really bite – CNN/Money

Student-Loan Delinquencies Among the Young Soar – WSJ

Italian president says forming new government cannot be rushed – Reuters

FHA Hits Brakes on Housing With Budget Cuts – Bloomberg

Credit ratings: The numbers behind the ratings – Economist

Bitcoin virtual currency reaches all-time high price – BBC

Two Dollar Fallacies – Feldstein, Project Syndicate

Ten QE Questions – Roubini, Project Syndicate


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil prices drop as US spending cuts kick in – AP

Gold extends fall after run of monthly losses – Reuters

Would new Dow record set a bear market trap? – MarketWatch

Time to call a truce in the currency wars – CNN/Money

U.S. oil is booming, led by Texas and North Dakota – McClatchy

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In February – Gold & Silver Blog

Arizona Senate advances bill to make gold and silver legal tender – AZ Capital Times

Gold’s price may have changed but the fundamental drivers haven’t – Mineweb

Gold’s bull run not over, it’s just taking a break – MarketWatch

‘The Gold Rush is Over’: Societe Generale – Barron’s



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Sequestration: How big a drag? – MarketWatch

Consumer Metrics Institute: A Hard Year Ahead – Dollar Collapse

Eurozone unemployment rate hits record high of 11.9 percent – Washington Post

Italy deficit above target, debt hits record high – Reuters

China’s Manufacturing Expands at Below-Forecast Pace – Bloomberg

UK manufacturing unexpectedly shrinks, pound slides – Telegraph

No Honeymoon for Japan’s New Central Banker – Bloomberg

A Phoenix Housing Boom Forms, in Hint of U.S. Recovery – Businessweek

Foreclosure, Short Sales 43% of US Residential Sales in 2012 – S&P

Rising Student-Loan Delinquencies Hurt Young Homebuyers – Bloomberg

‘Pervasive’ Fraud by Our ‘Most Reputable’ Banks – HuffPost

For Fed Presidents, Economics Is Local – NY Times






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/03/01/friday-morning-links-122/

MUST READS

Bernanke Resuscitates QE, Downplays Risk and Cost – Bloomberg

Bernanke says Fed stimulus benefits clear, downplays risks – Reuters

Bernanke Affirms QE Pace While Dismissing Balance Sheet Concerns – Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren, Ben Bernanke Clash Over ‘Too Big To Fail’ – HuffPost

Sequester will sock a vulnerable economy – Washington Post

Sequestration Crisis Makes Me Want to Strangle Both Sides – Taibblog

Italy’s borrowing costs surge after election stalemate – BBC

Italy’s ‘Childlike Refusal to Acknowledge Reality’ – Spiegel

ECB bond plan in jeopardy after Italy’s vote – Telegraph

Young adults are too broke to get loans – CNN/Money

Hurray for Washington! – Independent Institute

Why We’re In This Mess – Money Illusion


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil rises amid Fed commitment to low rates – AP

Gold retreats after post-Fed rally – Reuters

The myth of the Great Rotation – CNN/Money

Sterling ‘worst-performing currency of 2012′ – Telegraph

Buckle Up: More Volatility Ahead for Stock Market – CNBC

China Stocks Rise Most in 3 Weeks – Bloomberg

Can gold’s fragile recovery take hold? – Mineweb

Less Than Useless: Goldman Sachs Lowers Gold Forecast – Mish

Is gold finished? – The Real Asset Co.

The Great Gold Bust – Bullionvault


ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Economic Confidence Wobbly as Sequester Approaches Gallup

Kuroda Heading for Confirmation as Abe Prepares BOJ Nominees – Bloomberg

The Berlusconi Effect: Political Gridlock Wins Italian Elections – Spiegel

In U.S., Majority Still Names China as Top Economic Power – Gallup

UK did not flat-line but grew 0.2pc last year, says ONS – Telegraph

Canada Losing Debt Halo as Bull Market Housing Peaks With Carney – Bloomberg

Jumbo mortgages are back, but at far from 2007 levels – Reuters

Home Prices Soar on Short Supply, Investor Demand – CNBC

Shiller’s Bottom Line: Risk Lingers in Housing – WSJ

Does Bernanke Have the Best Inflation Record? – NY Times

Draining excess reserves and the exit strategy – Sober Look

Dove or Hawk? Bernanke’s record – Antonio Fatas






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/02/27/wednesday-morning-links-124/

MUST READS

Italy faces post-vote stalemate, spooking investors – Reuters

Italy Political Vacuum to Extend for Weeks as Bargaining Begins – Bloomberg

Euro debt crisis looms again as Italians defy EU austerity demands – Telegraph

Why Europe Just Got Its First ‘Rebellion’ Of The Crisis Era – Business Insider

Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in Stress of QE3 Exit – Bloomberg

President Obama’s sequester strategy: Divide and conquer – Politico

Boehner/Obama sequester staring contest continues – NBC News

Our Real Worry Isn’t the Debt, It’s Our Politicians – Fiscal Times

Just Like That, Safe Havens Are Back in Favor – CNBC

Americans anxious about retirement – Washington Post

Parents Are Robbing Retirement for College – CNBC

Americans still aren’t saving enough – CNN/Money


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil falls on economic jitters, Italy election – AP

Gold rises as Italian election gridlock boosts appeal – Reuters

Gas Prices Are Closing In On A Danger Zone For Stocks – BI

Gary Shilling: Why You Should Sell Stocks And Buy Treasurys – Forbes

How the U.S. boom is dashing Canada’s energy dreams – Globe & Mail

Three Magic Numbers That Could Derail the Stock Market – CNBC

Gold’s death cross is no reason to feel grim – MarketWatch

Goldman Sachs cuts 2013, 2014 gold price forecasts – Reuters

UBS is predicting a ‘major gold rally’ this year – MarketWatch

The Truth about the COMEX – Global Gold



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Economists Ignored the Financial Sector – FDL

Fix the Economy, Not the Deficit – American Prospect

The Economy and Fed Policy: Follow the Demand – FSBSF

Sir Mervyn King urges domestic focus for monetary policy – Telegraph

HSBC: Abenomics Risks Deepening Financial Turmoil – Bloomberg

China Has Its Own Debt Bomb – WSJ

China to further liberalize capital markets – China Daily

China’s riskiest property market just collapsed – Washington Post

It’s always the best time to buy – The Burning Platform

Jack Lew’s Grotesque Citi Employment Deal – Naked Capitalism

Lockhart Supports Fed Asset Purchases Through End of 2013 – Bloomberg

Bernanke to face Fed critics in testimony to Congress – Reuters






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/02/26/tuesday-morning-links-127/

MUST READS

Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us – Time

White House releases state breakdown of sequester’s effects – Washington Post

Does it matter that the UK has been stripped of its AAA credit rating? – Telegraph

Post-downgrade Britain: Choose your vicious circle – Economist

Is the UK the New ‘Problem Child’ of Europe? – CNBC

Bernanke’s challenge: prime markets for policy turn – Reuters

Economists Warn Fed Risks Losing Control Amid Budget Deficits – Bloomberg

Is the U.S. about to hit a tipping point for government debt? – Washington Post

Fed Officials Reject Warning Losses May Weaken FOMC Clout – Bloomberg

The Fed, Chinese Tightening and Distribution – Prudent Bear

More wiggle room for student-loan debt? – MarketWatch

Euro ‘phony war’ about to end – MarketWatch


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil gains, shrugs off weak China manufacturing – AP

Gold bounces on stronger euro, Fed testimony – Reuters

Japan markets boosted by central bank nominee reports – BBC

Markets Just Can’t Get Enough of the Abe Trade – CNBC

Betting Against Treasurys: The Pros and Cons – WSJ

Gold Prices: Look at the Facts – Bullionvault

Believing the Fed, doubting gold – Fleckenstein, MSN Money

World’s biggest gold storage company dumps US citizens – Sovereign Man

Gold changing role as wealth moves East – Mineweb

Calling Tops and Bottoms – 321Gold



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Gas prices jump, but not as high, survey finds – CNN

Bernanke’s Stimulus Spurring Employment in Housing – Bloomberg

Japan seen nominating “deflation basher” as BOJ head – Reuters

Trade protectionism looms next as central banks exhaust QE – Telegraph

China’s manufacturing sector stumbles – CNN/Money

Half of Detroit property owners don’t pay taxes – Detroit News

They Bailed On Their Homes – Now They Want Back In – CNBC

The Federal Reserve owns 10% of all residental mortgage debt – O.C. Housing News

Guess who the biggest investors in Fannie, Freddie are? – Housing Wire

Fed to face challenges in exiting unprecedented monetary expansion – Sober Look

Bernanke Goes Car Shopping – The Big Picture

Helicopter money – voxeu






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/02/25/monday-morning-links-116/

The latest issue of the Iacono Research Weekend Update has been posted to the website and is now available for subscribers here . There will be one change to the model portfolio this week, but no changes to the buy ratings, and an extended commentary about how precious metals were affected by the recent release of the Fed meeting minutes, all included in the following discussion topics:



The executive summary is as follows:



Iacono Research Model PortfolioAs the March 1st U.S. budget cuts known as “sequestration” rapidly approach with no deal in sight, equity markets ended the week slightly lower than where they began after the release of another set of Federal Reserve meeting minutes led traders to believe that the central bank might halt its money printing effort sooner than expected. Economic reports in the U.S. were mixed, but Europe’s recession deepened and this led to a stronger dollar that also pressured asset prices.


Selling in the natural resource sector wasn’t limited to just precious metals as was the case the week prior as commodity prices saw their sharpest declines since last October and related shares fared even worse. REITs were one of the few asset classes to advance and the model portfolio fell 2.2 percent, now down 6.3 percent for the year.



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MUST READS

White House changes course on sequester – Politico

Budget Cuts Seen as Risk to Growth of US Economy – NY Times

5 Reasons Not to Worry About the ‘Dreaded’ Sequester – Fiscal Times

Bernanke Said to Minimize Asset-Bubble Concern at Meeting – Bloomberg

Republican demands answers on Bernanke’s exit strategy – The Hill

Fed’s Bullard: Fed Policy to Stay ‘Easy’ for ‘Long Time – CNBC

Fed unlikely to curtail stimulus despite rising doubts – Reuters

More Inflation Is the Cure for the Fed’s Impotence – Bloomberg

Spike in gasoline prices points to speculators – McClatchy

Gas prices hit $4 a gallon in Washington, D.C. – Washington Post

“Just Be Your Own Central Bank” – Dollar Collapse

Memories of Peak Oil – The American


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil snaps 2 days of steep losses, gains modest – AP

Gold firms, short-term strength possible – Reuters

The Stock Market Ponders Life Without QE – Bloomberg

Sometimes you CAN “Fight the Fed” – Comstock Partners

Hedge Funds Boost Stock Bets to ’07 High – Bloomberg

Gold’s Death Cross is a buy signal for China – Telegraph

US ETF investors end 5-month love affair with Spyder Gold – Reuters

Commerzbank: Gold price will push towards $2,000 this year – Mining.com

Could Gold ETF Outflows Drive ‘Vicious Circle of Selling?’ – ETF Trends

Gold – Here Is The Good News – GoldSilverWorlds



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Strike Three! The American Consumer Is Out – CNBC

The End of Growth Wouldn’t Be the End of Capitalism – Atlantic

Italy Goes Down to the Wire as Nervous Investors Watch – CNBC

BOE Plans to Sign Yuan Currency Swap Deal With China – Bloomberg

‘Gambling Away Trust’: Fears Rise of a Berlusconi Resurrection – Spiegel

Hong Kong unveils new measures to cool property market – CNA

Homeowners Rise Above Water on Mortgages – CNBC

Despite Aid, Borrowers Still Face Foreclosure – NY Times

Investment firms buying up Florida foreclosures – Palm Beach Post

Fed and Bank of England head in different directions – Financial Times

Don’t Dismiss the Communications Value of QE – Fed Watch

The Mysterious Minutes of the Federal Reserve – CNBC






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/02/22/friday-morning-links-121/

MUST READS

Obama’s sequestration strategy: Shame – Politico

The blame game over sequestration – Washington Post

With Cutbacks Days Away, Obama Pressures GOP – NY Times

Simpson: Debt Could Make Obama a “Failed” President – Fiscal Times

U.S. Banks Bigger Than GDP as Accounting Rift Masks Risk – Bloomberg

China loves the US dollar again as America roars back – Telegraph

Forget the big comeback; Detroit focuses on what can be saved – Reuters

The College Whose Graduates Have A 62% Student Loan Default Rate – Zero Hedge

California’s budget windfall could end soon, officials say – LA Times

Boomers face credit-card quandary as economic doldrums bite – Reuters

Milton Friedman Warns Fed Against Fooling Mother Nature – Bloomberg

Millions expect to outlive retirement savings – CNN/Money


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil price rises ahead of US housing data – AP

Gold drops to six-month low ahead of FOMC minutes – Reuters

S&P closes at 5-year high as U.S. stocks gain – MarketWatch

Ten-year Treasury yield hits 10-month high – MarketWatch

They’re drilling, baby, and gas prices still go up – McClatchy

How to know when it’s time to leave the party – MarketWatch

Gold Bull Market `Still Intact’ Says HSBC’s Respected Steel – GoldCore

Daily Nugget – Gold awaits FOMC and the next catalyst – The Real Asset Co.

It Only Takes Two Charts To Explain The Collapse In Gold – BI

Gold could extend losses on looming ‘death cross’ – Reuters



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

The Rise of the Robots – Project Syndicate

Misinterpretations in Mainstream Economics – Unlearning Economics

Forecasters wrong about a recovery just around the corner – Washington Post

King Defeated in QE Vote as BOE Broadens Policy Debate – Bloomberg

‘Land Grabbing’: Foreign Investors Buy Up Third World Farmland – Spiegel

Japan trade deficit hits record as yen weakens – BBC

Shinzo Abe Is Brave, But Is He Wise? – Bloomberg

Mortgage applications continue to sink – Housing Wire

Inside the mortgage companies freaking out the Fed – Fortune

Fed Message Will Be Dovish Despite Ruffled Feathers – CNBC

And the Pressure on the Bank of Japan Rises – Fed Watch

Equipping the Fed for a Future Crisis – NY Times






via Iacono Research http://iaconoresearch.com/2013/02/20/wednesday-morning-links-123/

MUST READS

Gangster Bankers: Too Big to Jail – Taibbi, Rolling Stone

Don’t Blink, or You’ll Miss Another Bailout – Morgenson, NY Times

First rule of currency war: Don’t say currency war – MarketWatch

G-20 Signals Support for Japan Easing Without Yen Talk – Bloomberg

What is a currency war and are we heading for one? – BBC

Federal worker furloughs could start in April – CNN/Money

Automatic cuts are getting a big yawn from Washington – Washington Post

Citizens now desperately raiding 401(k) plans to pay bills – Natural News

Financial Decline Ahead for Most Retirees – Washington Post

Retirement savings: How much is enough? – MarketWatch

How to Worry About the Deficit – The Atlantic

Hedge Funds Gone Wild – Noland, Prudent Bear


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MARKETS/INVESTING

Oil falls toward $95 on growth fears – AP

Gold off 6-month low, China buys after holiday – Reuters

31 days of higher gas prices comes at tough time – CNN/Money

Stock market wild card: big spending cuts – MarketWatch

The Siren’s Song of the Half-Cycle – Hussman Funds

Taking Stock: The ‘Great Rotation’ wobbles – Globe & Mail

Japan shares up as G20 statement stokes weak yen hopes – BBC

Gold & Silver Price Takedown: Noise vs Facts – GoldSilverWorlds

China’s gold demand to beat supply by 2015 – Mining.com

India drives global gold demand in Q4 2012 – Mineweb



ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING

Update: Recovery Measures – Calculated Risk

Why Over 8% Unemployment Could Lie Ahead – CNBC

Incomes Flat in Recovery, but Not for the 1% – NY Times

GMO’s James Montier Debunks A Big Myth About Hyperinflation – BI

Yes, but how much did China REALLY grow in 2012? How about 5.5%? – FT Alphaville

In China, Families Bet It All on College for Their Children – NY Times

Bundesbank Says German Economy to Return to Growth This Quarter – Bloomberg

More adjustment to come for home prices in Canada: Carney – Globe & Mail

The suspension of the housing move up market explained – O.C. Housing News

Obama, Housing and the Next Big Heist – Counterpunch

Housing Market Improvements Expected through 2014 – PRWeb

The Fed Is Blowing More Bubbles – Mises






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