Showing posts with label Joe Weisenthal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Weisenthal. Show all posts

Last night, Obama signed an executive order, bringing the dreaded "sequestration" into effect.


That sequestration will lop off $85 billion from government spending this year, via across-the-board cuts to defense and every domestic agency.


Economically, the austerity is dumb (because the economy is still weak) and pragmatically, the across-the-board nature of the cuts is a silly way to cut spending.


And yet, for now, sequestration is here.


What makes it really pathetic is this chart, which our Walter Hickey recently published, and which comes from the Bipartisan Policy Center.


It shows that there's virtually no change to any of our debt dynamic metrics as a result of these cuts. Yes, the cuts might reduce deficits by a little bit (although they might not, if the economy slows too much) but the trajectory of things is virtually identical.


sequestration deficit trajectory


Even for avowed budget cutters, the win is Pyrrhic.


As NYT/CNBC's John Harwood tweeted this morning.



Rs won lower discretionary spending levels than Obama/Dswant. But cost is greater: no entitlement reform AT ALL. Was achievable.


— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) March 2, 2013

It seems pretty clear that Obama is open to (at least some modest) tweaks to entitlements. But to make them palatable, he wants them paired with higher taxes, which is an impossibility in this Congress.


So we got these dumb cuts that don't do anything about current debt dynamics.


SEE ALSO: Barack Obama: I am not a dictator >


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via Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sequestration-has-begun-and-heres-the-most-pathetic-part-about-it-all-2013-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29

Early last month, Fed Governor Jeremy Stein gave a speech titled Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses that raised the question of whether or not we might be seeing a bubble, and if so what might be done about it.


You've probably heard a lot of talk about the aggressive lengths that money managers are going to to "reach for yield" in the context of this ultra low-rates environment.


Stein didn't sound too fearful yet, but the overall concern is that we could be setting up another credit bubble, just like before the recent crash.


In the latest version of their US Interest Rates Strategist letter, Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart and Matthew Hornbach look at the scene in corporate credit and determine that the market might be "modestly rich" rather than straight-up "overheated."


Three charts from their work stand out, that nicely call into question the idea of a bubble.


First, although junk bond (or high-yield) yields are at record lows, actual spreads (where those yields are relative to risk-free Treasuries) remain well off their lowest levels.


The chart is a little bit noisy for the unfamiliar, but the line to watch here is the green line, which shows the average high-yield spread, or the average difference between what high-yield credit pays and what risk-free Treasuries pay. The current difference is about 500 basis points, well above the less then 300 basis points that we saw pre-crisis.


high yield spreads


The next chart shows what companies are doing with the proceeds of their high-yield borrowing. Whereas in 2007, high-yield debt issuance was going to things like leveraged buyouts and other acquisitions, these days the proceeds are going overwhelmingly to refinance old debt, which is just really prudent financial management.


high yield proceeds


And then finally, the underlying condition of high-yield debt issuers is in better shape these days. They have more cash relative to debt, suggesting that their credits are fundamentally safer.


high yield


None of this is to suggest that there aren't causes for concern. And you should read Jeremy Stein's speech (here) but the evidence of a raging bubble in this space has to be tempered by signs that prices aren't totally out of whack, and issuers of high-yield debt aren't going crazy.


SEE ALSO: The scariest chart in the world >


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via Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/is-there-a-high-yield-credit-bubble-2013-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29

ATM


There are lots of datapoints coming out today.


First up: Personal income and spending for February.


Personal income was expected to fall by 2.4%, but it fell 3.6%.


Personal spending grew as expected 0.2%.


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via Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/february-personal-income-and-spending-2013-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29

Italy is a trainwreck today.


We got:



image


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via Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-is-a-trainwreck-today-2013-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29

pinkslip tbi


It's a big day for economic data.


Coming up at 8:30 AM ET is initial jobless claims.


Analysts expect 360K new initial jobless claims, down just a hair from 362K.


We'll have the number here LIVE.


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via Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-february-28-2013-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29